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FDR: Hero or Zero?


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Tyop
Title: Grammar Nazi
Joined: May 04 2008
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PostPosted: Mar 28 2009 08:02 am Reply with quote Back to top

Syd Lexia wrote:
we can't observe evolution in real-time.

Of course we can. When insects develop a resistance against pesticides what do you think that is? That's evolution. Observable in real-time. Scientists even have observed the origin of new species, both in the wild, as well as in the lab. Examples include speciation events in fruit flies, houseflies and lab rat worms.



 
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Syd Lexia
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PostPosted: Mar 28 2009 09:22 am Reply with quote Back to top

that's not evolution. Some insects are naturally resistant to pesticides. When you use pesticides to wipe out the non-resistant ones, then the whole population becomes resistant. That's just genetics, dominate traits and recessive. Saying that's evolution is like creating a closed gate community for blondes. After a couple of generations they'd only have blonde children. That's not evolution.
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username
Title: owner of a lonely heart
Joined: Jul 06 2007
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PostPosted: Mar 28 2009 10:20 am Reply with quote Back to top

super-germs. happens from using too much hand sanitizer. thats an example of almost real time (one month to the next. thats as close to real time as we get i guess)

this thread really took off.


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Tyop
Title: Grammar Nazi
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PostPosted: Mar 28 2009 10:28 am Reply with quote Back to top

It is evolution. Just do a quick google search for "evolution of pesticide resistence". You'll find plenty of scientific articles and books on the subject.



 
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username
Title: owner of a lonely heart
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PostPosted: Mar 28 2009 10:37 am Reply with quote Back to top

Tyop wrote:
It is evolution. Just do a quick google search for "evolution of pesticide resistence". You'll find plenty of scientific articles and books on the subject.

i agree it is evolution. 2 weeks ago, some germs would die w/my regular hand sanitizer. now they wont


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Syd Lexia
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PostPosted: Mar 28 2009 12:41 pm Reply with quote Back to top

The end result of evolution is a new species, with a new species being defined as a strain of flies that cannot produce fertile offspring with the old strain. Has this happened?
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Tyop
Title: Grammar Nazi
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PostPosted: Mar 28 2009 01:31 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Good question. Yes, that has happened. Take a look at the talk.origins Speciation FAQ. Most of the papers mentioned there only report possitive assortative mating (i.e. flies only mating with flies of the same strain), but there are also some that report sterile offspring, for example Dobzhansky and Pavlovsky (1971):
Quote:
Dobzhansky and Pavlovsky (1971) reported a speciation event that occurred in a laboratory culture of Drosophila paulistorum sometime between 1958 and 1963. The culture was descended from a single inseminated female that was captured in the Llanos of Colombia. In 1958 this strain produced fertile hybrids when crossed with conspecifics of different strains from Orinocan. From 1963 onward crosses with Orinocan strains produced only sterile males. Initially no assortative mating or behavioral isolation was seen between the Llanos strain and the Orinocan strains. Later on Dobzhansky produced assortative mating (Dobzhansky 1972).



 
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Dr. Jeebus
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PostPosted: Mar 28 2009 03:49 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Tyop wrote:
Syd Lexia wrote:
we can't observe evolution in real-time.

Of course we can. When insects develop a resistance against pesticides what do you think that is? That's evolution. Observable in real-time. Scientists even have observed the origin of new species, both in the wild, as well as in the lab. Examples include speciation events in fruit flies, houseflies and lab rat worms.

If I build up a resistance to certain types of poison, which is quite possible, have I evolved myself?


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Syd Lexia
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PostPosted: Mar 28 2009 03:57 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Tyop wrote:
Good question. Yes, that has happened. Take a look at the talk.origins Speciation FAQ. Most of the papers mentioned there only report possitive assortative mating (i.e. flies only mating with flies of the same strain), but there are also some that report sterile offspring, for example Dobzhansky and Pavlovsky (1971):
Quote:
Dobzhansky and Pavlovsky (1971) reported a speciation event that occurred in a laboratory culture of Drosophila paulistorum sometime between 1958 and 1963. The culture was descended from a single inseminated female that was captured in the Llanos of Colombia. In 1958 this strain produced fertile hybrids when crossed with conspecifics of different strains from Orinocan. From 1963 onward crosses with Orinocan strains produced only sterile males. Initially no assortative mating or behavioral isolation was seen between the Llanos strain and the Orinocan strains. Later on Dobzhansky produced assortative mating (Dobzhansky 1972).

Ah, cool.

I wonder how long it would take for this to happen with humans. How long before mainland Africans and mainland Chinese are genetically incompatible?
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TheRoboSleuth
Title: Sleuth Mark IV
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PostPosted: Mar 29 2009 01:56 am Reply with quote Back to top

Syd Lexia wrote:
Tyop wrote:
Good question. Yes, that has happened. Take a look at the talk.origins Speciation FAQ. Most of the papers mentioned there only report possitive assortative mating (i.e. flies only mating with flies of the same strain), but there are also some that report sterile offspring, for example Dobzhansky and Pavlovsky (1971):
Quote:
Dobzhansky and Pavlovsky (1971) reported a speciation event that occurred in a laboratory culture of Drosophila paulistorum sometime between 1958 and 1963. The culture was descended from a single inseminated female that was captured in the Llanos of Colombia. In 1958 this strain produced fertile hybrids when crossed with conspecifics of different strains from Orinocan. From 1963 onward crosses with Orinocan strains produced only sterile males. Initially no assortative mating or behavioral isolation was seen between the Llanos strain and the Orinocan strains. Later on Dobzhansky produced assortative mating (Dobzhansky 1972).

Ah, cool.

I wonder how long it would take for this to happen with humans. How long before mainland Africans and mainland Chinese are genetically incompatible?

Longer than humans have been around. And thats if you don't allow interbreeding, which mucks up the system unless you start controlling for traits.

We don't see evolution happen often in real time cause its such a long winded process. Flies are preferred cause they have lifespans of weeks, bacteria can change even faster but are kinda small. Like any study of the greater outer universe or the smaller molecular one, we just have to observe the effects, deduce, and assume that god isn't pulling some bait and switch with illusory stars like Ockham proposed.


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Tyop
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PostPosted: Mar 29 2009 04:45 am Reply with quote Back to top

Dr. Jeebus wrote:
If I build up a resistance to certain types of poison, which is quite possible, have I evolved myself?

Populations evolve, not individuals. Yours would simply be a random mutation that gives you a survival advantage. If for some reason most humans were wiped out by a poison and only you and individuals with the same trait survived and produced offspring who are immune, then you could claim to have contributed to the evolution of the human species as a whole.



 
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Syd Lexia
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PostPosted: Mar 29 2009 06:40 am Reply with quote Back to top

Tyop wrote:
Dr. Jeebus wrote:
If I build up a resistance to certain types of poison, which is quite possible, have I evolved myself?

Populations evolve, not individuals. Yours would simply be a random mutation that gives you a survival advantage.

While individuals do not evolve, I'm not sure that up a resistance counts as a mutation. Generally speaking, genetic mutations occur before birth during the first trimester of pregnancy. Building up a resistance to a poison is essentially the same thing as getting a vaccine; you dose yourself with a small amount of it, a couple of times, and your body learns to cope with it. I'm pretty sure that it's not considered a mutation, at least not at the genetic level, because it's not a trait you can pass on to offspring.
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Blackout
Title: Captain Oblivious
Joined: Sep 01 2007
Location: That Rainy State
PostPosted: Mar 29 2009 07:11 am Reply with quote Back to top

I'm gonna jump in here real quick then leave you to your serious discussion again.

What if man eventually evolves to the point where cancer becomes not only non fatal, but beneficiary? For example what if years of pollution and smoking cause one of the lungs in future humans to mutate into a cancerous carcinogen processing organ that some how utilizes all the crap floating around in the air that is currently bad for you? Confused



 
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Syd Lexia
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PostPosted: Mar 29 2009 07:36 am Reply with quote Back to top

Pretty sure that wouldn't work. IIRC, cancer takes over cells and stops them from performing their original purpose. A tumor is basically a mass of cancerous cells that aren't do anything except producing more cancer cells.

I know for sure that cancer always spreads, and if it didn't kill you first, it would eventually take over your whole body.
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Blackout
Title: Captain Oblivious
Joined: Sep 01 2007
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PostPosted: Mar 29 2009 08:56 am Reply with quote Back to top

Wonder if there's any research on harnessing the way cancer cells reproduce canceling out the yucky cancerous parts and using it for growing new organs and stuff. Confused



 
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Cattivo
Joined: Apr 14 2006
Location: Lake Michigan
PostPosted: Mar 29 2009 08:33 pm Reply with quote Back to top

Tyop wrote:
Cattivo wrote:
You really should read more in depth about the other side of the argument. I suggest the pamphlet by the President of the Czech Republic, Vaclav Klaus.

Sorry, but I only read books written by climate scientists about this subject. You know, people who know what they're talking about

I wouldn't dismiss Klaus that quickly. Like any good historian or political scientist, he did a substantial amount of research, drawing from both pro and anti- climate change scientists, comparing statistical analyses and making those of his own.

I don't know, perhaps because of my history background, I put a lot of credence into that method. (Klaus is actually an economist, though.)

Your restriction to only climate scientists is understandable. However, if the sun's cycles could be a factor instead of man-made elements to any change in temperature, what scientists should we listen to? Shouldn't we take both types into account then?

As for evolution, I won't get too much into that because we've been into that before (and I still need to see that youtube video you've posted in this thread and in past threads). Nevertheless, I still see a distinction between theories and rules/facts. Then there's how the paradigms in science are always changing as we learn more about how the world works. Past theories are proven wrong every generation. The only constant is God - but that's just my faith at work there.

...And as I've said before, I believe in both evolution and creationism. They're not mutually exclusive.
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TheRoboSleuth
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PostPosted: Mar 30 2009 12:54 am Reply with quote Back to top

God is not a constant, that is to say, the current iteration of the christian god is not a constant.

The cliche response would be before god there was Zeus. There was also Wotan, Ameterasu, Huitzilipochtli, Marduk, Baal Zebul, Brahma, Atum-Re, Ahura Mazda, Allah, YHWH, Epona, Shango, Inti, and many others.

There are also multiple interpretations on the nature of the Christian god, and his apparent temperment, gender, level of activity, degree of anthropomorphism, and any number of other qualities, both salient and minor, so far as to whether or not he is three beings or one have been very sorely contested.

One could assert that perhaps the one true god IS constant and humans are desperately groping in the dark for this awareness and the above search are the mistaken stumbling of a relatively blind humanity.

But then, if you did, I would then turn around and assert that science is much the same way, except in place of God the search is a better understanding of the universe.


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Tyop
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PostPosted: Mar 30 2009 05:19 am Reply with quote Back to top

Cattivo wrote:
the sun's cycles could be a factor instead of man-made elements to any change in temperature

Solar irradiance is indeed a factor and every climate scientist will tell you so. However solar activity is not at work instead of man-made elements to produce the current warming. You can calculate the amount of solar forcing and it's not even close to the net anthropogenic forcings. That's what the current consensus is as summarized in IPCC WG1 SPM, page 4, which I already referred you to.

And that's not even mentioning that the claims of solar irradiance being the major contributor are contradicted by the fact that there are no changes in solar activity over the last thirty years of direct satellite observation (apart from the usual eleven year cycle) and that temperatures have kept rising during this time.

Cattivo wrote:
what scientists should we listen to? Shouldn't we take both types into account then?

If the other side makes up less than 0.3% of the peer-reviewed scientific literature then frankly, no. That's well within the normal margin of error for any scientific theory. Consensus does not require unanimity. If we waited for everyone to accept a theory before we move on, there'd never be any progress in science.

Cattivo wrote:
Nevertheless, I still see a distinction between theories and rules/facts

Yes, there is a difference. Theories explain things, facts just are. If you observe an apple falling down towards the earth's center that's a fact. Gravity is the theory that explains this fact. However gravity isn't "just a theory" as if somebody just made shit up while he was doing shots with his buddies. It's a well-established set of explanatory principles that has withstood empirical testing thousands of times. Same is true for evolution.

Cattivo wrote:
Past theories are proven wrong every generation.

That's a good thing to remember when dealing with anything in science, because it keeps us humble and our claims modest. But it's a bad ground for doubts about any specific theory. Such doubts have to come from specific problems that a theory has, rather than general observations about the nature of science.



 
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Dr. Jeebus
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PostPosted: Mar 30 2009 08:01 am Reply with quote Back to top

Blackout wrote:
I'm gonna jump in here real quick then leave you to your serious discussion again.

What if man eventually evolves to the point where cancer becomes not only non fatal, but beneficiary? For example what if years of pollution and smoking cause one of the lungs in future humans to mutate into a cancerous carcinogen processing organ that some how utilizes all the crap floating around in the air that is currently bad for you? Confused

Have you been reading a lot of Deadpool lately?


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Syd Lexia
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PostPosted: Mar 30 2009 08:30 am Reply with quote Back to top

Tyop wrote:
If you observe an apple falling down towards the earth's center that's a fact. Gravity is the theory that explains this fact. However gravity isn't "just a theory" as if somebody just made shit up while he was doing shots with his buddies. It's a well-established set of explanatory principles that has withstood empirical testing thousands of times. Same is true for evolution.

Is gravity a theory or a law? Wikipedia seems to use the two terms interchangeably: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_law_of_universal_gravitation#Problems_with_Newton.27s_theory

And to play devil's advocate here, just because something has been empirically tested doesn't necessarily mean it's correct. As our technology evolves, so does our understanding of the world, and yesterday's empirically-tested science is now today's pseudo-science.

As for global warming, I am going to concede that you have put far more research into the matter than I have and care far more strongly about that it I do, and I will defer to you on this matter. That being said, I am much less concerned with globabl warming than I am with the threats I consider to be far more immediate and serious to our planet's sustainability: deforestation and overfishing.
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Deadmau_5pra
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PostPosted: Mar 30 2009 08:32 am Reply with quote Back to top

Conservatives can eat a dick, Liberals too

Obama is NOT FDR he's Obama


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Dr. Jeebus
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PostPosted: Mar 30 2009 09:17 am Reply with quote Back to top

SpraCoalee wrote:
Conservatives can eat a dick, Liberals too

Obama is NOT FDR he's Obama

I'm pretty sure he wishes he was FDR


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UsaSatsui wrote:
The three greatest heels in history...Andy Kaufman, Triple H, and Dr. Jeebus

 
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Tyop
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PostPosted: Mar 30 2009 11:10 am Reply with quote Back to top

Syd Lexia wrote:
Is gravity a theory or a law? Wikipedia seems to use the two terms interchangeably: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton%27s_law_of_universal_gravitation#Problems_with_Newton.27s_theory

That's a tough one. I think Newton's take on gravity is better described as a law, because it describes a single phenomenon, but doesn't really explain it. The only explanatory element it has is that there's a gravitational field that is "caused" by mass. I guess you could call that Newton's theory, but I'm not really sure. Einstein's take on gravity however is definitely a theory, because it explains gravity in terms of space-time distortions.



 
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Deadmau_5pra
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PostPosted: Mar 30 2009 11:39 am Reply with quote Back to top

Dr. Jeebus wrote:
SpraCoalee wrote:
Conservatives can eat a dick, Liberals too

Obama is NOT FDR he's Obama

I'm pretty sure he wishes he was FDR


Of course, but sadly the way FOX is potraying his adminstarion he won't even level up to Nixon,

And don't even get me started on MSNBC


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Syd Lexia
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PostPosted: Mar 30 2009 11:50 am Reply with quote Back to top

Tyop wrote:
Einstein's take on gravity however is definitely a theory, because it explains gravity in terms of space-time distortions.

If I understand things correctly, Einstein's take on gravity isn't so much an independent idea as it a clarification of gravity that explains the discrepancies between Newton's basic equation and some observed gravitational fields.
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