S. McCracken wrote:

a reason why he's up 8 points with less than 3 weeks to go.

Gallup just showed Obama up by only 2 points among likely voters while using their traditional polling methods. There are certainly a few polls showing Obama up by only 2 or 3, so there might be a trend developing showing the race getting close again.

Besides, you shouldn't accept polls as completely accurate. Read this recent article describing how presidential polling has often underestimated the republican showing:

http://townhall.com/columnists/AnnCoulter/2008/10/15/eighty-four_percent_say_theyd_never_lie_to_a_pollster?page=full&comments=true

It may be from the bile spewing Ann Coulter, but her research in the article is spot on.

S. McCracken wrote:

The "close" Ayers connection McCain keeps pushing has been debunked by most pundits from his own party.... ...I would submit that the fact of the matter is that McCain, in pushing all of these attacks that have been debunked by people who actually know what they're talking about...

Sources please? All of the republican sources that I have seen have shown great concern over Obama's connections and have not said anything about them being debunked. As far as I'm concerned, Obama's connection to Ayers, Wright, Frank Marshall Davis & ACORN are pretty deep and disconcerting. I think you're believing the Dem spin on this issue without questioning, just as I automatically dismiss the dem's counterargument as excuses. We could get in a debate over how close the connections are, but we would both just end up spewing talking points to each other, and not changing either of our minds'.

For Diana Nelson, she comes from the same political region as Obama, so it's in her personal interest not to discredit it. Sure, others served on committees with Ayers, but none of them had their political career launched in the man's living room. This goes beyond committees, and the meeting is not a lie like Obama asserted in the debate.

As for the Fox News pundits/guests, these were the same people that in the days leading up to the debate stated that McCain had to hammer Obama on Ayers so that he could come back in this race, and to counter Obama's assertion that McCain refused to say it to his face in the second debate.

As for ACORN, Obama was their general counsel, that's more than just a casual association. Also, he has received considerably more money from then than McCain.

The ACORN argument does have some holes because McCain has spoken to them before and gotten some money from them, but like I said above, it's nothing compared to the money and representation ties between them and Obama.

As for Wright, and you're statement that "Now all of a sudden, it's fair game.", McCain I don't think has ever mentioned him in any attacks against Obama. If he mentioned him in passing at the debate, then I am mistaken, but as far as I remember, McCain has not considered him fair game. Now, for the pundits and bloggers, it's a different story. I feel it's fair game because he specifically chose that parish and sat there for 20 years during the homilies. If you don't get what Rev. Wright is about by then, than I would have to question your observational & listening skills. Now, it is certainly possible that he was using it as a way of networking to make it big locally here in Chicago, not advocating Wright's racist beliefs.

As for polls, here's some recent ones more favorable to McCain:

Gallup, 2155 LV, Obama 49%, McCain 47%
IBD/Tipp, 825 LV, Obama 45%, McCain 42%
GW/Battleground, 800 LV, Obama 49%, McCain 45%
Reuters/CSPAN/Zogy, 1210 LV, Obama 49%, McCain 44%
Rasmussen, 3000 LV, Obama 50%, McCain 46%
AP/Yahoo, 1528 RV, Obama 44%, McCain 42%

Also keep in mind that in many of those above and in others, undecided are in the double digits, sometimes as high as 14% or 16%. Usually it should be around 5% at this point.

However, I do believe this election will end up being a landslide - either way. Obama is certainly winning right now, but some recent trends show a narrowing, and historically these polls have underestimated republican support, as indicated by the Coulter article I linked to in a previous post.

In addition, here's an article discuss the recent volatility of the polls amid the tighter results in the polls I listed above:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420151553142939.html


I certainly respect your opinion more than most on this board too, that's why I am so surprised by your support of Obama. I've always seen you as a more independent/libertarian person, so I would think that McCain would fit you perfectly, although I can understand your opinion that he has changed since the 2000 race. I see Obama as far left, so for a more middle of the road guy as yourself, I don't understand how you can vote for a guy like that. Like me, you are able to see the stupidity on both sides of the aisle (I think both of us were McCain supporters in 2000, I refused to accept the crowning of W by the GOP establishment).

S. McCracken wrote:

so has the Republican party since then.

I'm in total agreement with you there. I am so frustrated by my party's leadership it's amazing. They allowed themselves to become corrupt and ruined the opportunity that they had by having all the power that they won. As McCain has said, "We were coming to change Washington in '94, but Washington changed us." They had both the presidency and Congress from 2000-2006, but accomplished hardly anything from their agenda. Granted, they were under filibuster threats from the dems, but regardless, there's been no permanent tax, spending, or social security reform.

Meanwhile, Bush turned into a free-spending liberal, refusing to cut spending and allowing the deficit to explode. While more spending for the military was required, it should have been cut elsewhere. We're supposed to be the party of small government, but it's grown exponentially over the past eight years.

S. McCracken wrote:

I also don't see Obama as being as far to the left as Clinton, Gore, or Kerry.

For me, the things he says, especially the code words such as "spread the wealth around", remind me of the things my professors said in college and grad school, and they were admitted socialists and communists.