So today I played in a poker tournament at the MGM and was fortunate enough to win big. The guys I was with logically explained that since I basically had free money I should spend some of that on some retarded prop bets on the Super Bowl. Being the degenerate that I am, I went along with the plan.
Every casino out here puts out a freaking book of prop bets for the Super Bowl. The MGM had a booklet that used paper that was twice as long as the standard 11 inches, and it was 20 pages long. There was something like 2000 prop bets in there. My friends and I looked through it and I picked several that I was willing to put some money on.
I'm going to list off everything I put a wager on; this way you can laugh at how much money I've blown on these ridiculous sucker bets. Or, if you have no stake in the Super Bowl, maybe now you'll have a rooting interest in the game—either because you want to see me win or see me lose.
The amount of money I put down is really, really retarded. Looking back, I'm embarrassed. It really is an obscene waste of money, but hey, I had just won a shitload of money and I was having a good time on The Strip.
Here goes. Oh, and on lines like the point spread and Over/Unders, I'm putting down how much I could win from the bet. You have to pay 10% over what you plan to win...that's how the casino makes their money. So, for example, if I say I put $100 down on the Steelers, I actually put down $110. Whatever, who cares. After the Super Bowl is over I'll total everything and see where I wound up.
1) Steelers +2½ ~ $100. My head tells me that Green Bay is a better team, but for some reason my instincts are telling me to go with the experience of Pittsburgh. What's funny is a few weeks ago when there was still 8 teams in the playoffs I asked FNJ what team I should put $20 on to win the whole thing. He picked Green Bay, and at the time they were 8 to 1 to win the whole thing. If Green Bay wins, I'll win $140 profit from that; if they only win by 2 points or less, then I'll hit on both bets. Ka-ching! LOSER! But I won the Packers futures bet.
2) Total points – Under 44½ ~ $100. Most people seem to really like the over in this game, but people are forgetting these are statistically the top two defenses in the NFL this year. I think there will be long stretches in the game where no points are scored. It's always way more fun to take the over in these situations since you root for any scores, but I just can't go along with the crowd here. I do, however, think the total will be around 40 points, so I expect to be sweating this one out until the end. LOSER!
3) Christian Aguilera's National Anthem Running Time – Over 1 minute 50 seconds ~ $150. This is probably the stupidest thing I put any money on, but come on...she's going to blow way past two minutes, easy. WINNER! But it was close. I timed it at about 1:54. Thank god she stopped for dramatic pause right before "brave".
4) Special Line Total points – Under 39½ ~ $50. Getting 2:1 odds on this adjusted line, so I can win $100. LOSER!
5) First Scoring Play of Game – Packers Field Goal ~ $25. Getting 3:1 odds here, so I can win $75. If I was ballsy enough to pick a safety as the first scored, I'd get 50:1 odds. LOSER! It was a J. Nelson TD.
6) Total Points Scored by Both Teams Combined – 36-41 pts ~ $25. Getting 3:1 odds here, so I can win $75. You could bet on a host of ranges, such as 0 to 14 points which would pay 100:1. LOSER!
7) Player to Score 1st TD of Game – James Jones ~ $20. Getting 14:1 odds here, so I could win $280. He's the Packers third receiver, and I think he'll see a lot of action in this game as the Steelers attempt to lockdown Jennings and Driver. For the record, the odds on favorite is Pittsburgh's RB R. Mendenhall at 4:1. LOSER! J. Nelson TD.
8) Exact Points Scored By Steelers – 23 ~ $10. Getting 20:1 odds here, so this could pay $200. You can literally bet on any point total from 0-100. 4 points would have paid out 1000:1! LOSER!
9) Exact Points Scored by Packers – 20 ~ $10. Getting 14:1 odds here, so this could pay $140. 18 points pays out 100:1, and I almost took that. LOSER!
10) Will there be a score in the final 2 minutes of the first half? - No ~ $25. Getting 2:1 odds on this, which I think is a steal. If you wanted to bet “yes” on this you had to put down down $25 to win $10. LOSER! Ward scored a TD.
11) In which half will more points be scored - 2nd half + Overtime ~ $50. Super Bowls tend to start off slow, and then see a lot of scoring once teams have settled in. Hopefully that remains true for this one. LOSER!
12) Will there be a successful 2 point conversion in the game? - Yes ~ $10. I'm getting 5:1 on my money here, so I figured "What the hell?" WINNER!
13) Will there be at least one scoreless quarter? - Yes ~ $10. 3:1 odds here. LOSER!
14) Shortest TD by either team – Over 1½ ~ $50. Under is the favorite here. I would actually win $60 profit if I'm right. So basically I'm just hoping for no 1 yard TD runs. WINNER!
15) Which will occur first for the Steelers: any score or a punt? - Punt ~ $25. I would only win $20 if this comes in. WINNER!
16) First turnover of the game will be? - Fumble ~ $25. I'm getting 2:1 on my money here, and I think Big Ben may be good for a fumble or two. Hopefully it happens before either QB throws a pick. LOSER! Ben threw an INT.
17) Total TDs scored in game – Under 5½ ~ $100. I only lose this if 6 TDs are scored, and that just seems a bit too high for this type of game. That's why I put a good amount of money on it. LOSER!
18) Will B. Roethlisfefgefehfegberger throw at least one INT? - Yes ~ $50. I would only win $30 profit if this comes in, but it seems pretty likely that he'll throw one. WINNER!
19) B. Roethlisbeffphhvpehfabbeger total rushing yards – Over 11½ ~ $25. Two scrambles and I probably win this one. WINNER!
20) A. Rodgers passing attempts – Over 33½ ~ $50. Packers prefer to pass over throw, and I think they'll try to spread out the Steelers defense by throwing a lot. Plus, their running game pretty much sucks. WINNER!
21) A. Rodgers total rushing yards – Under 23½ ~ $50. This seems like a sucker bet to me. Rodgers ran for over 300 yards this season, and I think he averaged somewhere around 20 yards a game. I don't see him scrambling too much against the Steelers. WINNER!
22) Which QB will throw a pick first? - Big Ben ~ $25. I'm surprised this was even money, but I guess Rodgers will be passing more so he does have a high chance of throwing one. WINNER!
23) Will James Jones score at least one TD? - Yes ~ $25. Getting 3:1 on my bet. This is really just a shot in the dark. I think he'll get some targets in the red zone. LOSER!
24) Over/Under 2½ times Brett Favre's name is mentioned during the game – Over ~ $10. Another retarded bet of mine, but sounds fun to keep track of. With the Packers in the Super Bowl and Favre's career likely over, I'm thinking there will be a discussion about him. LOSER! I don't think he got a mention until the post-game show.
25) Total field goals made in game by both teams – Over 2½ ~ $200. This number seemed way too low, so I put my largest wager on this one. LOSER! DAMN IT!
26) Shortest field goal made by either team – Under 26½ yards ~ $25. Why not? WINNER!
27) Longest field goal made by either team – Over 41½ ~ $50. Why not? LOSER!
28) Team to make the longest field goal – Packers ~ $25. I need help. LOSER!
So there it is. In total I put down $1416. Now, before you give me shit, I had won a few thousand dollars playing poker. I likely will lose money overall with my props, but I'll hit on some of them and win some money back...I hope.
Feel free to give your opinion on some of these props, and enjoy the Super Bowl everyone.
I don't think your bets are that bad, to be honest.
The one thing I would warn you about, is to stay away from ESPN, Fox Sports, or NFL network type analysis when it comes to games if you are laying money down.
One big example of how they just continue a meme throughout the discussion has to do with Pittsburgh's center being out. Instead of analyzing matchups and players, they just look at it as: starting center out, well obviously it's a big problem. I understand that there were three or so horrendous snaps in the AFCCG, but with two weeks of practice, I would think the center and QB are comfortable enough to negate that. For actual breakdown of Green Bay's front 7 vs. Pittsburgh's O-line, I found this article (the whole site is actually pretty nice for those that are interested).
If I were putting money down, I would just prefer to have the best breakdown I could. But like you said, these were more just for fun and you seem to be ok with losing out on some money.
Good luck.
UsaSatsui
Title: The White Rabbit
Joined: May 25 2008
Location: Hiding
Posts: 7565
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 10:54 am
What, no bet on the Gatorade color or how long the National Anthem will be or how many times they'll mention Bret Favre? Lame,,,
Very nice. I had heard the over/under on Favre was 2.5 but I thought that was way way too low. Oh, Satsui nailed it, you need to bet on Gatorade color. Blue/purple always pays nice, just put 20 or something on it. What about the coin toss? Over/under on Keisel's beard mentions? Over/under on Polamalu hair mentions?
username
Title: owner of a lonely heart
Joined: Jul 06 2007
Location: phoenix, az usa
Posts: 16123
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 01:00 pm
heh, nice. good luck klimba
Klimbatize wrote:
I'll eat a turkey sandwich while blowing my load
Pandajuice
Title: The Power of Grayskull
Joined: Oct 30 2008
Location: US and UK
Posts: 2649
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 01:12 pm
UsaSatsui wrote:
What, no bet on the Gatorade color or how long the National Anthem will be or how many times they'll mention Bret Favre? Lame,,,
Klimb did lay down bets on the length of the anthem and how many times Favre will be mentioned.
username
Title: owner of a lonely heart
Joined: Jul 06 2007
Location: phoenix, az usa
Posts: 16123
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 01:27 pm
so, who is going for who in the super bowl? i dont care for either team, so im rooting against the team that i care least for. in this case, i hate the steelers, so go PACKERS
Klimbatize wrote:
I'll eat a turkey sandwich while blowing my load
Klimbatize
2010 NES Champ
Title: 2011 Picnic/Death Champ
Joined: Mar 15 2010
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 4975
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 03:05 pm
UsaSatsui wrote:
What, no bet on the Gatorade color or how long the National Anthem will be or how many times they'll mention Bret Favre? Lame,,,
I know there was a wall of text to read through so it's easy to miss, but I did bet on the National Anthem ($150 on over 1:50) and Brett Favre mentions ($10 on over 2.5).
As for the Gatorade, my friends really pushed me to put money on yellow (3:1), but I just couldn't do it. Hell, you could bet on which players would be dumping the Gatorade on the coach, or if the bath occurred before or after 45 seconds left in the game.
username wrote:
so, who is going for who in the super bowl? i dont care for either team, so im rooting against the team that i care least for. in this case, i hate the steelers, so go PACKERS
This was my problem...I just didn't care at all who wins. I don't particularly hate either team more than the other, so I was afraid I'd have to watch the NFL with absolutely no rooting interest. To rectify that I placed all these dumb bets.
Once the game starts I'll know who I'm rooting for. I'm guessing I'll probably pull slightly more for the Packers since they haven't won recently. But really, I won't be heart-broken if Pittsburgh wins.
What, no bet on the Gatorade color or how long the National Anthem will be or how many times they'll mention Bret Favre? Lame,,,
I know there was a wall of text to read through so it's easy to miss, but I did bet on the National Anthem ($150 on over 1:50) and Brett Favre mentions ($10 on over 2.5).
Yeah. meesa so stupid. To be honest, I scanned the list like 5 times and didn't see it, though I think I looked at the bottom half more carefully than the top.
OK, game's going to start soon. If things become locks I'll edit the original post and indicate if I won or lost. I'll also keep a running total of money won.
That's my mentality, but I know better than to think they won't win.
username
Title: owner of a lonely heart
Joined: Jul 06 2007
Location: phoenix, az usa
Posts: 16123
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 09:34 pm
i didnt watch the half time show. i was in my room when it came on, but i heard that fucking crap anyhow, and that sounded like a horrible half time show.
fuck the BEP
Klimbatize wrote:
I'll eat a turkey sandwich while blowing my load
SNESGuy
Title: El Duderino
Joined: Jul 31 2010
Location: Da D.C
Posts: 1831
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 10:27 pm
username wrote:
i didnt watch the half time show. i was in my room when it came on, but i heard that fucking crap anyhow, and that sounded like a horrible half time show.
fuck the BEP
it was complete garbage, and we didnt even get to see a boobie pop out
Doddsino
Joined: Oct 01 2009
Posts: 5316
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 10:34 pm
Thank GOD Green Bay scored there, they played incredibly shitty almost the entire 3rd quarter.
Doddsino
Joined: Oct 01 2009
Posts: 5316
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 10:56 pm
Packers just blew the fucking game there...who gives a fuck about a field goal when you're only up 3?
Doddsino
Joined: Oct 01 2009
Posts: 5316
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 11:06 pm
Jesus...VERY close call. As much as I hate to admit it, it's been a pretty good game. Packers BARELY survived.
SNESGuy
Title: El Duderino
Joined: Jul 31 2010
Location: Da D.C
Posts: 1831
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 11:25 pm
Da Packers won the gaddamn game
username
Title: owner of a lonely heart
Joined: Jul 06 2007
Location: phoenix, az usa
Posts: 16123
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 11:29 pm
Doddsino wrote:
Jesus...VERY close call. As much as I hate to admit it, it's been a pretty good game. Packers BARELY survived.
haha nice
Klimbatize wrote:
I'll eat a turkey sandwich while blowing my load
aeonic
Title: Sporadic Poster
Joined: Nov 19 2009
Location: Kissimmee, FL
Posts: 2747
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 11:39 pm
The best thing about this year's Super Bowl is that there's a whole year until the next one. Funny list though, Klimb, you crazy fella.
Who likes role-playing games? Me. Way too goddamn much.
SoldierHawk
Moderator
Title: Warrior-Poet
Joined: Jan 15 2009
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 6085
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 11:40 pm
Thank God. I have no particular love for the Packers, but if the fucking Steelers had won OUR TROPHY in OUR HOUSE, I would have had a conniption.
William Shakespeare wrote:
Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none.
Klimbatize
2010 NES Champ
Title: 2011 Picnic/Death Champ
Joined: Mar 15 2010
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 4975
Posted:
Feb 06 2011 11:49 pm
So, if my math is correct, I won $1155 back of the $1436 I put in (I'm including the 8:1 Packers bet I made earlier). That's a net loss of $281 on this Super Bowl. Yup, that's how huge hotels in Vegas are built.
I hope I added a little bit more enjoyment to the game for some of you. I still can't believe only two field goals were made! One more and I turn a profit of $139, damn it.